A expectativa para a inflação deste ano foi revisada para cima no Relatório de Mercado Focus divulgado nesta terça-feira, 23. A projeção de 2024 passou de 3,71% para 3,73%. Um mês antes, a mediana era de 3,75%. Para 2025, foco principal da política monetária, a projeção passou de 3,56% para 3,60%.
Considerando as 114 estimativas atualizadas nos últimos cinco dias úteis, a mediana para 2024 passou de 3,70% para 3,73%. Para 2025, a projeção passou de 3,56% para 3,64%, considerando 112 atualizações no período.
Para 2026, a projeção continuou em 3,50% pela 42ª semana consecutiva – seguindo a reancoragem apenas parcial destacada pelo Banco Central após a manutenção da meta de inflação em 3,0% para este e os próximos anos. No horizonte mais longo, de 2027, a estimativa seguiu em 3,50%, como também está há 42 semanas.
As estimativas do Relatório de Mercado Focus continuam acima do centro da meta para a inflação, de 3,00%. O IPCA de 2023 ficou em 4,62%, abaixo do teto da meta (4,75%, para um centro de 3,25% no ano passado), evitando o estouro do objetivo a ser perseguido pelo BC pelo terceiro ano consecutivo, depois de 2021 e 2022.
O Comitê de Política Monetária (Copom) divulgou em março projeção de 3,5% para o IPCA de 2024, igual à das reuniões anteriores, de dezembro e janeiro. Para 2025, também seguiu em 3,2%.
Curto prazo
Os economistas revisaram as expectativas de inflação de curto prazo no Relatório de Mercado Focus. A mediana para abril de 2024 passou de 0,32% para 0,36%. Há um mês, a expectativa era de 0,30%. Para o IPCA de maio, a estimativa passou de 0,24% para 0,25%, de 0,22% um mês antes. Já para junho, a previsão para o indicador passou de 0,18% para 0,17%, de 0,19% um mês antes.
Projeção suavizada
Os economistas do mercado financeiro revisaram a expectativa para a inflação suavizada para os próximos 12 meses no Relatório de Mercado Focus desta semana de 3,53% para 3,56%, de 3,45% há um mês.
Em junho do ano passado, o ministro da Fazenda, Fernando Haddad, anunciou ao Conselho Monetário Nacional (CMN) que o presidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva iria editar decreto estabelecendo uma meta contínua de inflação a partir de 2025, em substituição à atual meta-calendário.
No dia 20 de outubro, porém, Haddad confirmou que não havia previsão para publicar o decreto que regulamenta a meta de inflação contínua. Mas, como mostrou o Estadão/Broadcast, com a chegada de mais diretores do Banco Central indicados por Lula em janeiro, o decreto da meta de inflação poderia ser finalmente publicado, mas isso não ocorreu até o momento.
Leia Também: Justiça Federal libera R$ 2,4 bilhões para aposentados do INSS
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