Após o governo anunciar as mudanças na meta fiscal para os próximos anos, e considerando o cenário externo adverso, o mercado elevou a projeção da Selic para 2024 para 9,50%, ante 9,13% na última semana. Há um mês, o patamar era de 9,00%. Considerando apenas as 103 respostas dos últimos cinco dias úteis, a mediana para o fim de 2024 passou de 9,25% ao ano para 9,75%.
O Copom cortou a Selic pela sexta vez consecutiva em 0,50 pp, para 10,75% ao ano em março. O colegiado mudou a sinalização e indicou que o ritmo de corte de 0,50 ponto porcentual continua sendo o mais apropriado para a próxima reunião – no singular, e não no plural.
No encontro de março, o Copom repetiu que a magnitude total do ciclo de flexibilização ao longo do tempo dependerá da evolução da dinâmica inflacionária, em especial dos componentes mais sensíveis à política monetária e à atividade econômica, das expectativas de inflação, em particular daquelas de maior prazo, de suas projeções de inflação, do hiato do produto e do balanço de riscos.
No Relatório de Mercado Focus, a projeção para a Selic no fim de 2025 interrompeu um ciclo de 19 semanas de estabilidade em 8,50% e passou para 9,00%. Considerando apenas as 102 respostas dos últimos cinco dias úteis, a mediana para o fim de 2025 passou de 8,50% ao ano para 9,00%.
Para 2026, a projeção seguiu em 8,50% pela 38ª semana consecutiva. Para 2027, a estimativa também seguiu em 8,50%, onde se mantém por 37 semanas.
Leia Também: Governo Tarcísio recua da intenção de aumentar poder da PM após reação da Polícia Civil
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